Tuna Declines in the Mediterranean

From Newsweek, "The Tragic Tale of the Last Tuna."

Mediterranean fishermen are hurting: stocks of bluefin tuna, by far the sea's most economically important fish, are dangerously low. Although many countries share the blame, the chief culprit, say fisheries experts, is France. Its annual quota accounts for one fifth the entire legal quota of Atlantic tuna for all countries. Factor in illegal catches, and France's take climbs to about one third of all Atlantic tuna caught last season, according to Greenpeace. When it comes to bluefin tuna in the Mediterranean, "France is the worst," says French biologist Daniel Pauly, director of the Fisheries Centre at the University of British Columbia.

The article goes on to state that this fishery is on the brink of commercial extinction. There are two main points I found interesting. The first factor, declines in stocks leads some fishermen to cheat.

With catches declining, many fishing operations have taken on debt, which gives them a motivation to stretch or break the rules.

The second factor, there exists a nearby country, Libya, with very lenient environmental policies.

With France's tuna waters in the Gulf of Lyon fished out, and yield sharply down near the Balearic Islands, French boats headed to Libyan waters, where quotas are almost meaningless. Some vessels sell fish at sea, sidestepping port controls. Rogue boats sell tuna caught over their quotas to "reefer" freezer boats bound for Asia, or to fishing boats with unmet quotas, a trick known as laundering. Fishermen have also begun to deliver tuna live in undersea cages to nonfishing vessels, which take the fish, mostly underweight juveniles, to offshore pens, where they're fattened for sale.

This creates a very difficult management scenario, since these stocks are not limited to specific political borders. The benefit of cheating far outweighs any of the risks associated with getting caught, since Libyan regulators can obviously be bought off. This makes fisheries management very difficult. This leads to an important question: What types of viable management strategies exist? Can France develop policies with large enough teeth to create a legitimate disincentive for their own fishermen? Will European governments find this issue important enough that they will pressure Libya to increase enforcement?

HT: Ahabs Journal

Links to Natural Hazards Websites and Documents

I have updated the EEZ Rider links. It now includes links to websites and documents specific to Natural Hazards. This is a currently a work in progress. I will be adding other links, especially additional documents. As always, if anyone has online materials that would fit this section, please email a link or put a link in the comments section.

My next addition will be an applied statistics/econometrics page.

EEZ-Rider Natural Hazards Page

Should Louisiana Have to Pony Up?

From the AP:

Thursday night, Congress approved a $162 billion war spending bill that included $5.8 billion for flood protection in the New Orleans region. But the funding for Army Corps of Engineers construction projects would be triggered only if the state agrees to a $1.8 billion match.

Louisiana would have to come up with $1.1 billion of its share in 2010, when the corps' heaviest work load is expected, said Garret Graves, Jindal's director for coastal affairs.

Jindal and other state officials had urged Congress to give Louisiana 30 years to pay its share, but Congress was under pressure from President Bush to keep domestic spending under control in the war bill.

This brings up a good question, "How much of the costs should Louisiana have to cover and in what time frame?" This article states that Louisiana, while generally a poor state, has been running a $6o0 million budget surplus. Is it unreasonable for the state to cover the $1.8 billion match? I don't have a definite answer, but I do think that the state should cover its fair share - what-ever that is. There must be funding mechanisms available to cover these types of costs.

Bush Heart Ocean: Protecting Deep Water Coral

The Bush Administration is interested in creating a National Monument off the US Southeast Coast to protect deep water coral. From the Charlotte Observer:

Scientists are just beginning to explore deep-water coral reefs, possibly millions of years old, that stretch from North Carolina to Florida. They form pristine oases, alive with fish, crabs and weird creatures that one researcher says “look like Dr. Seuss went crazy down there.”

The discoveries have caught the attention of the Bush administration, which is reported to be interested in protecting 25,000 square miles of reefs off the Southeast as a national monument.

Note: The image above is part of a slide show titled "Treasure Under the Sea."

NOAA Removes Seven Stocks from Overfishing Lists

From the NOAA website:

244 stocks and stock complexes were reviewed for their overfishing status.

• 203 (83 percent) are not subject to overfishing, while 41 (17 percent) are.
• Seven stocks were taken off the overfishing list in 2007, the largest number
  removed in a single year since NOAA has been compiling the report.

190 stocks and stock complexes were reviewed for their overfished status.

• 145 (76 percent) are not overfished, while 45 (24 percent) are. A stock or
  complex is considered to be overfished when its population numbers fall below a
  certain level.
• Four complexes are no longer overfished.
• Three complexes have fully rebuilt to target levels.

2008 Status of US Fisheries

Nationwide is on your wet side...

Nationwide is asking Congress to allow insurance companies to sell flood coverage. Here are some of the details of the plan ( Times-Picayune):

Under the plan, homeowners would buy flood coverage as part of a new type of homeowners policy. The private flood coverage would be the same price as what consumers could buy through the National Flood Insurance Program, but consumers could buy more than they can through the federal program, which limits coverage to $250,000.

But unlike regular homeowners policies, the new homeowners policies with flood coverage would be regulated by the federal government instead of state insurance commissioners. The flood premiums would be held in a separate account than the regular homeowners money. Insurers wouldn't profit from the flood premiums, but wouldn't be taxed on what they collect in flood premiums.

A portion of the flood premium that consumers would pay would go to the federal government to help build a reinsurance fund that would step in if a huge flood exhausted the regular flood premiums that private companies collected. The National Flood Insurance Program would continue to exist, but a flood reinsurance fund to serve the private flood policies would be created alongside it.

The article notes that this action may address some of the wind vs flood disputes that occur after large storm events such as Katrina. These companies could play a more active role in making sure clients have flood coverage.

The idea is that enough private companies would start offering their own flood policies that the reinsurance program would be more financially viable than the flood program, which went broke after Katrina.

With this proposal, Nationwide joins other companies in trying to offer solutions to how the country finances disasters. Travelers has pitched a federally regulated coastal wind zone and Allstate is backing the notion of a national catastrophe fund.

I like the idea of developing private market solutions to these types of problems. In order to develop a more concrete opinion, I would need more information on any proposed legislation; however, it is promising that Nationwide would proposing this type of move.

“Offshore drilling is a mouse. The Everglades is an elephant.” **

Images from baynews9.com:

According to U.S. Sugar Corp, the company will sell all its holdings to the state, including land, its sugar mill, refinery, citrus plant, citrus nursery, rock mines and equipment.

The land, covering Hendry, Glades and Palm Beach counties, is slightly smaller than the size of Pinellas County. The farming in the area has long been considered a hinderance to protecting the environment.

Here is an image from the NY Times:


Also from the NY Times:

The impact on the Everglades could be substantial. The natural flow of water would be restored, and the expanse of about 292 square miles would add about a million acre-feet of water storage. That amount of water — enough to fill about 500,000 Olympic size swimming pools — could soak the southern Everglades during the dry season, protecting wildlife, preventing fires, and allowing for a redrawing of the $8 billion Everglades restoration plan approved in 2000.

It would essentially remove some of the proposed plumbing. Many of the complicated wells and pumps the plan relied on might never have to be built, water officials said, because the water could move naturally down the gradually sloping land.

For more discussion on this topic, see WSJ:Environmental Capital.

** Quote in the NY Times Article from David G. Guest, a lawyer for Earthjustice Legal Defense Fund.

Typhoon Imagery from 2006

From NASA's Visible Earth:

Three different typhoons were spinning over the western Pacific Ocean on August 7, 2006, when the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASA’s Aqua satellite acquired this image

This is an old image, but I thought it was pretty cool.

Improving Hurricane Forecasts

From the AP via mlive.com:

Substantially improving the accuracy of hurricane intensity predictions could take years and tens of millions of dollars, the National Hurricane Center's director said Tuesday.

Predicting a storm's intensity is much harder for meteorologists than estimating where it will go. Since 1990, forecasters have reduced by more than half their errors in predicting a storm's path, but over the same time the accuracy of their intensity forecasts has remained virtually unchanged.

Be Prepared?

Yesterday, the Miami Herald had an article discussing hurricane preparedness by small businesses.

A recent Office Depot survey found that one in four small businesses do not have a disaster recovery plan. The excuses fell into three categories: no time, no money and lack of know how, said Tom Serio, director of global business continuity for Office Depot.

This finding falls in line with a previous post (here) discussing a lack of preparation by some Gulf residents. We see this reoccurring theme: nothing numbs like time. The Herald article also cites a new service by Florida International University aimed at helping businesses recover after storms. From the website:

BCIN will:

1. Rapidly report, map and share critical up-to-the-minute information about infrastructure conditions and recovery efforts immediately following a storm by working with County Emergency Management Offices and major private infrastructure providers. BCN will localize and tailor relevant information to business managers who will use this information to better assess the hurricane's impact to their facilities, employees, suppliers and customers.


2. Develop a B2B network, which will include government and NGOs, to assist businesses in obtaining disaster recovery resources, products, and services while allowing them to collaborate in recovery efforts.


3. Provide a channel for businesses to report their operational status and need of assistance back to government and NGOs so that these organizations can prioritize their relief efforts.

Still Burning

It looks like the fires in Eastern NC are still burning despite heavy rain over the weekend. From the N&O:

The fire has burned 41,060 acres since a lightning strike June 1. Firefighters have contained 75 percent of the fire, but interior vegetation continues to burn, according to the most recent update issued by the state Department of Environment and Natural Resources.

I have been told that these fires can be difficult to distinguish due to the available peat. For people not familiar with Eastern NC, these areas have a type of wetland call pocosins. Here is an AP photo found on daylife.com:



NASA photo:



John Whitehead over at Environmental Economics have had a couple posts on this fire (here and here). In another interesting read, fireengineering.com reprints an N&O article on the fire.

Because of the media attention focused on the giant wildfires of the West each summer, Southern wildfires can be overlooked. We discussed the prevalence of Southern forest fires via e-mail with Toddi A. Steelman, an assistant professor in the Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources at N.C. State University.

Q: Is the Pocosin Lakes wildfire typical for wildfires in the South?

A: No. It is much larger than a typical fire, and it is occurring on organic soils. This means that the soil actually catches on fire and has the potential to smolder or burn for a long time.

From 1998 to 2007, North Carolina burned, on average, 26,548 acres per year.

Keep in mind that the definition of a "typical" fire is changing. Overall, we are seeing larger fires in both the South and the West.

Eastern North Carolina has numerous fire dependent ecosystems. Pocosins are one such ecosystem. Historically, fire played an important role in these ecosystems by thinning out vegetation, causing vegetation to germinate and flower, and contributing in nutrient cycling. In some cases, however, fires can begin to burn peat soils. This leads to longer and hotter burning fires. This is partially the result of fire suppression and historic land alterations such as draining for agricultural purposes. Similar actions have led to larger fires out west. It is my understanding that climate changes, such as changes in the hydrologic cycle, have also contributed to larger fires.

Some additional reads
Using Fire to Improve Wildlife Habitat (NCSU)
Pocosin Lakes Fact Sheet

Why is the Ocean Underappreciated by Congress?

Daniel Hall, at Common Tradegies, has a good post discussing an article by Gregg Easterbrook in the June Atlantic Monthly. The Easterbrook article, which discusses threats from asteroids, has recieved significant criticism, as noted in Hall's post. Discusion of asteroids is beyond the scope of this blog, so I will let you read those posts so you make your own conclusions. I would like to focus on what I think is Hall's most important point:

My ultimate point is that the article has value because it highlights our screwy priorities when it comes to spending money on space. Why does almost all our $17 billion NASA budget go to getting humans in orbit and bases on the moon and Mars? We need a more Earth-centric NASA. It could be doing far more good developing enhanced Earth monitoring systems — satellite data is going to be invaluable to understanding climate change in the next century — and yes, protecting us from space debris.

While NASA has a $17 billion budget, NOAA has a $4 billion budget. It seems pretty obvious that coastal and marine issues have been under-represented in the budgetary process for a long time - at least relatively speaking. According the US Oceans Commission Report, ocean related economic activity was estimated at $117 billion in 2000. Also, coastal watershed counties accounted for almost 49% of the US economic activity in 2000 ($4,512,357,000 out of $9,415,552,000). This does not even fully account for the importance of the National Weather Service to the economic activity for the entire nation. As the climate continues to change, shouldn't we put more emphasis on things a little closer to home?

On a side note, Robert Ballard has an interesting talk at ted.com on exploring the oceans. It is remarkable how little we know about much of the ocean.

Typhoon Fengshen

(Image:NOAA)




(Image: UNISYS)


From AP:

The Philippine Red Cross says the death toll from Typhoon Fengshen has risen to at least 155, with the storm submerging entire communities in torrential downpours and and setting off landslides.

From ReliefWeb:

At least 30,000 people living in Iloilo in the central Philippines had scrambled onto rooftops fleeing the rushing water after the man-made dam overflowed, said the city's acting mayor Jed Mabilog.

The storm forced more than 200,000 people to seek temporary shelter in the eastern Bicol region, the civil defence office said.

I am curious what emergency management is like in the Philippines. Also, what are building codes like? In another report, 700 people are missing from a ferry that was running during the storm. Is there such poor communication that ferries with 700 people on them still run during large storms? I am not familiar with emergency management in developing countries, but it sounds like local governments in the Philippines have some work to do. I would guess that there are some relatively low cost solutions that would lead to major benefits in terms of saved lives.

Mapping Applications

Below are maps of Eckerd College in St. Petersburg, Fl. I thought this was a pretty cool application. It also allows you to use Virtual Earth's Bird's Eye View.



Map Channels - Free javascript:void(0)mapping tools for your website or blog

Historical Perspective: Drilling in the Gulf

It is always important to have historical perspective. In behavioral research, researchers have identified numerous types of cognitive biases which influence people's actions in the face of various types of risk. Robert Meyer of the Wharton School has an excellent paper titled "Why we underprepare for Hazards." One such bias is called projection bias, which Meyer defines as "a tendency for subjective forecasts about the future to be biased toward what is being experienced and felt in the present." Meyer uses the analogy of going to the supermarket when you are hungry: A person will buy food that addresses their current state rather than their overall needs. This does not necessarily mean that we shouldn't pursue oil or other fossil fuels, but in our hungry state, we may be willing to ignore important environmental concerns.

As shown in my last post (here), an oil spill close to the Florida coast could spread it over a considerable portion of the coast. Florida is obviously reliant on these beaches and water for beach recreation, recreational fishing, real estate, etc. Do the gains outweigh the risks? For a little historical perspective, the St Petersburg Times had a 2005 article discussing the impact of Hurricanes on drilling rigs.

As Arlene loomed, crew members evacuated the offshore oil and gas rigs that dot the waters off Alabama, Louisiana and Texas. After the storm passed, the crew of one Amerada Hess-owned rig returned to their platform 60 miles south of New Orleans and discovered the rig had spilled more than 550 gallons of oil.

That is a small spill - the equivalent of 45 barrels - but because the crew wasn't there to stop it, the oil flowed into the Breton National Wildlife Refuge. Within a month, 700 birds died, nearly all of them endangered brown pelicans.

In this situation, there was a small spill which inevitably killed 700 birds. Imagine a larger spill being dispersed over a large portion of Florida's Gulf Coast via existing currents off Florida. So I wonder, are we going into the supermarket hungry? Just a little food for thought.

Fear the Loop!

The St. Petersburg Times (via tampabay.com), has a piece on how drilling along Florida puts a large portion of its coast at risk.

If the boundary for oil and gas drilling in the Gulf of Mexico moves within 125 miles of Florida (shown in dark green in the image below), a broad segment of the state's coastal beaches would be at risk for pollution, oceanographers say.

The two pictures above shows the Loop Current, which flows toward Louisiana and then down Florida's western coast. This current could extend the reach of any pollutant.

Research Less!

From the AP:

They haven't rechristened a ship the Irony, but federal researchers are canceling and cutting back on voyages aimed at studying climate change and ocean ecosystems so they can save money on boat fuel.

Unfortunately this takes "Drive Less" to a new level. NOAA has decided to "Research Less!" Personally, I think this goes a little too far!

When the Levee Breaks

As I discussed yesterday, I have a specific interest in New Orleans. I have also referred to Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) reports which claim that New Orleans levees are better than ever, although some risk still exists. It is important to remember that "better than ever "is a relative term.

NOAA has now stated that storm surge could top New Orleans' levees with a Category 2 storm or higher. From courant.com:

While the forecast uses what officials say is the most accurate and complete picture yet of the region's levee heights, they said they weren't surprised by findings that reaffirm the area surrounding New Orleans is among the nation's most hurricane-vulnerable. The forecast released Monday represents the first time the yearly storm surge predictions have used levee heights based on global positioning system technology.

The article also states that these estimates do not account for potential engineering failures. These types of failures were a major contributer to post-Katrina flooding. I am curious how much flooding would occur from a levee failure or storm surge over topping. Is there a chance for flooding like we observed after Katrina?

Filling the Gaps: New Study Improves on IPCC Estimates

From EurekAlert!:

A new report in Nature finds that the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report actually under estimated sea level rise and increases in ocean temperatures.

The results are reported in the June 19 edition of the journal Nature. An international team of researchers, including Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory climate scientist Peter Gleckler, compared climate models with improved observations that show sea levels rose by 1.5 millimeters per year in the period from 1961-2003. That equates to an approximately 2_-inch increase in ocean levels in a 42-year span.

The ocean warming and thermal expansion rates are more than 50 percent larger than previous estimates for the upper 300 meters of oceans.

The research corrected for small but systematic biases recently discovered in the global ocean observing system, and uses statistical techniques that "infill" information in data-sparse regions. The results increase scientists' confidence in ocean observations and further demonstrate that climate models simulate ocean temperature variability more realistically than previously thought.

Easley Response to Offshore Drilling

Governor Easley of North Carolina attacks McCain's proposal to lift the ban on offshore drilling (link to N&O Blog). Easley states that lifting the ban would not help gas prices but would potentially damage the NC coastline. One quote I found interesting:

Citing the work at the Advanced Transportation Energy Center at N.C. State University, Easley said technological advances could come in two to five years — much sooner than the 10 years it would potentially take to get oil from offshore drilling.

Easley goes on to state that drilling could negatively impact real estate, tourism, and recreational fishing, all important facets of NC's coastal economy.

New Orleans Resettlement

In my work with the Center for Natural Hazards Research at East Carolina University, I have contributed on several projects related to post-Katrina New Orleans. This includes a paper in the Southern Economic Journal which I was a co-author, titled "Going Home: Evacuation-Migration Decisions of Hurricane Katrina Survivors" (with Craig Landry, Okmyung Bin, John Whitehead, and Kenneth Wilson).

I found the map below interesting. It shows how resettlement of New Orleans has occurred in various areas of the city. From US News and World Report (Click on picture for full view):



HT: All Points Blog

Birds of a Feather

First McCain calls for Congress to lift the ban on offshore drilling. Now Bush is on board. My new governor, Charlie Crist, also supports lifting the ban. I am curious how much oil would be available and at what environmental cost. Personally I am against drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, but there may be other locations that make sense. I just can't speak intelligently on where these alternative locations may be. The US needs to develop a substantive long term energy policy which accounts for regional variability in resources. If the Bush administration also put more emphasis on other renewable energy sources, I would put more stock in this type of effort.

Update:
As I stated above, I am somewhat ignorant concerning the oil reserves available if the ban on offshore drilling was lifted. Chris Shultz, at the Energy Collective, gives a little more insight. It appears that there are around 21 billion gallons of proven oil reserves that would be available.

The US consumes about 21 million barrels of crude oil a day. This is a little over 7.6 billion barrels a year, and that figure will rise as our daily consumption rises.

I still stand by my assessment that we need a long term energy policy which accounts for regional variability in natural resources. These types of plans often smell of political pandering since they have such short term impacts. At least this plan isn't as asinine as repealing the gas tax! Environmental quality should not be sacrificed for short term economic gains.

Erosion on South Nags Head

In recent years, federal funding for beach renourishment projects have shrunk considerably. In the short term, residents can apply to put out sandbags; however, these sandbags can only represent temporary relief. One area experiencing significant erosion is South Nags Head NC.

From the Virginia-Pilot

To the despair of a number of homeowners, the state Division of Coastal Management set a deadline of May 1, 2008, to start removal of unvegetated sandbags from the rapidly eroding stretch of beach north of Oregon Inlet.

"I think that people are between a rock and a hard place," said Ellen Dutkowsky, who lives off Old Oregon Inlet Road in South Nags Head.

Beach nourishment projects proposed by the federal and town governments have not been funded so far, she said, but the shoreline continues to narrow. Dutkowsky said that her property is not sandbagged, but she fears for the future unless the beach is widened.

Red Snapper Regulations for the Gulf States: Is Alabama getting the Shaft?

In general, regional efforts to manage fisheries make a lot of sense. When the Magnuson Act was written, it did an excellent job of acknowledging that the optimal management of many fisheries cannot be relegated to an individual state's waters. While far from perfect, the act has evolved so that it has the ability to incorporate ecosystem principles into management. States tend to control waters from the shore out to 3 miles (Texas and Florida Gulf coast are exceptions) and federal waters exist from 3 miles out to 200 miles (Exclusive Economic Zone ). Federal fisheries management actions are determined by Regional Fisheries Management Councils and then enforced by the NMFS. Of course NMFS has many other roles as well, including monitoring and research. Individual states are responsible for managing and enforcing their own waters.

One interesting issue related to state management of fisheries is how actions (or inaction) by individual states may inevitably harm adjacent states. The Press-Register in Alabama has an interesting article discussing how the Florida and Texas management of red snapper has potentially penalized Alabama.

While on an offshore fishing trip Friday, Gov. Bob Riley vowed to fight what he characterized as unfair federal management of red snapper stocks in the Gulf of Mexico that is hurting Alabama anglers and the charter fishing fleet.

Riley said he is concerned about the National Marine Fisheries Service's decision not to directly penalize Florida and Texas despite those states' decisions not to adopt federal snapper management regulations in their state waters for the past two years.

When the NMFS reduced the red snapper bag limit to two fish per person per day last year, Florida, Texas and Alabama decided instead to maintain state daily bag limits at four fish.

With its 3-mile state waters, Alabama's decision did not have much of an impact in terms of total catch. But with 9-mile state boundaries in the other two states, red snapper structure like wrecks, reefs and natural bottoms were within reach of fishermen in Florida and Texas.

Alabama complied with federal regulations this year, but Florida and Texas again did not. Both decided to reduce their state red snapper bag limit to two fish per person this year, but maintained the April 15 through Oct. 31 season length.

This leads to an interesting question: What is the real incentive for a state like Alabama, which has a relatively small coastline, to comply with this reduction in season length when much larger adjacent states do not? Relatively speaking, Alabama has a very small impact on total catch in the Gulf. I have not had an opportunity to look at any estimates, but there is no doubt that this will have some type of negative economic impact on the state. With a coastline as small as Alabama, anglers can just travel to near-by states.

Drive Less (Fast)

As a tribute to the guys over at Environmental Economics: It appears that people are not only driving less as a response to rising fuel prices, but they are also driving slower. Low Ee Mien at the Energy Collective has a post on how slowing down will also impact fuel economy for cars, ships, and planes.

Looks like Env-Econ now needs an additional t-shirt. Drive Less (Fast)...

Altered Oceans Series

Around two years ago, the LA Times had a series titled "Altered Oceans." The series inevitably won a Pulitzer Prize. A poster named Hill in the Google Earth Community developed Google Earth placemarks which coincide with the articles.

HT: Google Earth Blog

Community Supported Fisheries

Port Clyde, Maine now has Maine's first application of community supported fisheries. Via Foster's Daily Democrat (HT Ahab's Journal):

In agriculture, shareholders pay an upfront amount to farmers in return for a portion of the harvest. In the commercial fishing model, shareholders pay a set amount in return for a share of fresh catches of haddock, cod, flounder, shrimp and other seafood caught by four boats that fish out of Port Clyde, a fishing port in the town of St. George.

Some other links to Community Supported Fisheries Sites:
SeaNotes: Monterey Aquarium
NC SeaGrant

Note to Self, Avoid Boating Trip in Southeast Asia

From monkey_bites
Above is a picture of modern day pirate attacks in Southeast Asia. This map is from the ICC Commercial Crime Services. It appears that there are some folks who have extended international talk like a pirate day beyond September 19. Do you think I should include a class on pirates in my Intro to Coastal Management class?

Don't Be Hatin'

I can proudly state that I now have two laptops collaborating against me. Both computers revert to the "blue screen of death" every time I try to start them up. I am now the proud owner of a new computer as a result. These two computers seem to have been collaborating with my home's air conditioner in an effort to drive me out of Florida. I, however, am fighting back! Thanks to a few beers and a trip to the beach, I am ready to get back to work!

Federal Registry for Recreation Fishermen?

From the New York Times

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is proposing a rule that would require recreational anglers and spearfishers who fish in federal ocean waters to join a national registry.

I would think that this would inevitably provide much better data on numerous types of anglers. For example, in many states, charter boats and head boats get blanket coverage for their passengers. This allows their clients to avoid buying individual licenses. This, however, provides significant limitations for statistical sampling of anglers who participate in for-hire fishing. NMFS does sample these anglers using onsite sampling (intercept), but this result in a type of statistical bias which can be difficult to correct. This type of registry would likely give much better insight into the true population of these types of anglers.

Toe to Toe in St Pete

I am finally in my house in St Pete! It has been an interesting ride. One that has included a busted transmission and a broken air conditioner. I am sure that I will enjoy St Pete a lot, but Murphy's law has been working overtime! I will now,however, resume posting! That should please my two readers!

You like it fried? They like the soup....

Looks like changing demographics in China has led to increased demand for shark fins. Currently there are quotas for sharks and there are also restrictions on finning, where the shark's fins are removed and the rest of the shark is left.

On one side of the argument:

"Sharks are the biggest mass slaughter of large wildlife happening on the planet today," said Peter Knights, executive director of WildAid, a conservation group. "Sharks have been around for 400 million years, and we're looking at basically wiping them out in one human generation."

From 26 million to 73 million sharks are killed each year, said Shelley Clarke, a fisheries biologist who testified before Congress. More than 100 species are classified as threatened, including the basking shark, great white and great hammerhead.

On the other:

"This will inevitably put our fishery out of business," Hudson said. "But we can't stop it while bad math is running the show."

Joe Ludwig of New Smyrna Beach just sold his 35-foot boat, The Sea Dancer, and gave up on a 20-year shark-fishing career.

"There's no way to make a living anymore, and I made a good living, even back in the 1990s with those first quotas," Ludwig said. "And they say they're doing this because of overfishing, but I know what I see over the side of my boat, and they're thick enough to walk over."

One thing that I find interesting is that, according to this article in the Orlando Sentinal, Governor Crist has asked for federal disaster relief for the fishermen because the regulations have caused economic hardship. It just seems strange.....

Objections to Storm Water Rules

North Carolina is getting ready to implement new storm water rules. These rules have received numerous objections. From the Virginia Pilot

Coastal storm-water rules were first adopted in the state about 20 years ago. In 2005, the state Division of Water Quality determined that 90 percent of shellfish water closures were caused by storm-water runoff and that the rules needed to be updated to protect the coastal waters. But the construction and real estate industries objected strongly to changes in the threshold for low and high density.

The rule would reduce from 25 percent to 12 percent the allowed impervious, or hardened, surfaces in development within a half-mile from draining into shellfish waters. But 90 percent of the state's 20 coastal counties fall outside of the half-mile. For those areas, the permitted impervious surface would fall from 30 percent to 24 percent.

The new rule, approved in March, also would increase the vegetated setback from 30 feet to 50 feet, prohibit the use of wetlands in impervious surface calculations and lower allowable land disturbance from 1 acre to 10,000 square feet.

One comment that I found particularly interesting:

"The economy is at the edge of the recession and we don't need to stress them out any more," he said. "If you hamstring economic development more than you've done, you've set a bad cat loose."

We need to find ways to allow development without continuing this chronic degradation of coastal waters. I am not convinced that we should avoid environmental regulations because of economic downturns.

A New Coalition?

It appears that recreational fishermen and commercial fishermen have learned to get along. It seems that proposed changes in grouper regulations have brought these former adversaries together. From the St. Petersburg Times

"The feds would cut up the pie, leave one little piece for the fishermen and say, 'Here you go, fight over it,' " said Dennis O'Hern of the newly formed Gulf Partnership for Marine Fisheries. "But we've wised up. Instead of working against each other to pick through the scraps, we are going to join forces and get a bigger piece of the pie."

O'Hern, the driving force behind the Fishing Rights Alliance, and Bob Spaeth, the voice of the Southern Offshore Fishing Association, began their dialogue two years ago when they shared a ride from the airport to a meeting of the Gulf of Mexico Fishery Management Council in Texas.

It appears that the Gulf Partnership will be funding independent scientists to do separate analysis on some Gulf fisheries. They pooled resources this year and funded a biologist to review proposed regulations on gag grouper. This contributed to the Gulf Council putting proposed rules on hold.

"The Magnuson Stevenson Act says that the 'best available science' needs to be used when making any management decision," O'Hern said. "But it doesn't say that the 'best available science' has to come from the National Marine Fisheries Service."

This seems like an interesting situation, since recreational fishermen and commercial fishermen have not traditionally played well together. I am curious how this will impact future fisheries management decisions. I have done some work with NMFS in the past and think very highly of the people I worked with. Of course, I am an economist by training, so I did not have any real interaction with many of the biologists. Is there really this much uncertainty over some of the stock assessments done by NMFS biologists or is this an example of a powerful coalition blocking proposed actions, even if those actions do not represent the best interests of the fishery at large? Possibly a little bit of both? I would love to hear some different peoples' opinions on the issue since I am by no means an expert on stock assessments or this fishery.

Hat Tip:Ahab's Journal

Distribution of Coldwater and Tropical Reefs

Coldwater Coral in Blue
Tropical Coral in Red

From the UN Environmental Program

Nothing Numbs Like Time

One interesting behavioral response to natural hazards is people's penchant for complacency after relative dormant periods. Research has shown that people tend to be hyper aware of events right after being impacted. They basically assign a higher probability for the event to reoccur when compared to the true probability of re-occurrence; however, over time, people become complacent.

From the Gulf Breeze News

The poll shows some residents of hurricane-vulnerable states say they will not evacuate and prefer to weather storms at home. Many residents lack disaster plans, and many are still misinformed about how to protect themselves and their families during a storm. The poll shows even many of the residents who live within 30 miles of the coast fail to take proper precautions.

One of the most obvious ways to prepare is through insurance.

The poll revealed several concerns about the adequacy of homeowners' insurance:

Nearly one in four may not have replacement coverage.

45 percent said they have not reviewed their insurance policies with an agent within the last year.

38 percent of residents did not know their standard homeowner's policies do not cover flooding.

27 percent thought their homeowner's insurance covered flood damage, and another 20 percent weren't sure. In fact, flood damage is only covered if homeowners purchase a separate flood insurance policy, such as that offered by the federal government's National Flood Insurance Program.

It is interesting that so many people do not know what type of coverage they have. There has been considerable news coverage over insurance following Katrina. It appears that a large portion of this sample have no idea if their insurance covers flooding. It is likely that many of the sampled people do not live in flood zones, however, you would hope that they make conscious decisions not to buy flood coverage based on existing flood zones. It seems that we have a long way to go to better communicate risks with the public. It is much harder to deal with these issues after events.

Updates to EEZ Rider Pages

A quick note:

I am continuing to update the EEZ Rider Pages. I recently added a link to USACE's Coastal Engineering Manual in Marine Ecology, Geology, and Oceanography Resources. This is a good resource for people who want more background on Coastal Ecology and Geology. As a social scientist, I have found this, along with Komar's Beach Processes and Sedimentation, to be excellent background into Coastal Processes. At this time, I have lumped Ecology, Geology, and Oceanography documents onto one page. In the future I may divide them into separate pages. Eventually, I hope to get other types of coastal scientists to participate in this blog. They may have insight into organizing the natural science documents.

Future pages will include resources for econometrics and other types of applied statistics, tools for other types of social sciences, statistical software, classroom exercises and projects, and google earth applications. If anyone has good links to data or documents for existing or future pages, please share. I want these pages to be accessible to researchers, students, and the general public.

NMFS proposes revisions to advisory guidelines of MSA

NMFS has proposed revisions to advisory guidelines of the Magnuson-Stevens Act. The proposed changes would require all fisheries undergoing overfishing, to have Annual Catch Limits (ACLs) and Accountability Measures (AMs) by 2010.

From NOAA

Annual catch limits are the amount of each type of fish allowed to be caught in a year and are required by the 2007 amendments to the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act. Additionally, the act calls for measures to ensure these limits are followed and that the limits do not exceed the scientific recommendations made by the regional fishery management councils’ scientific committees.

The Haves and Have-Nots of Fishing?

John Whitehead, over at Environmental Economics, has a post talking about the decline in recreational fishing licenses in North Carolina. He cites an article claiming a 40% decline in license sales. This is interesting since Tuesday, I had a post that claimed for-hire boats had experienced a 30% decline in business. Although I am not looking directly at primary source data, I assume that changes in gas prices and a slower economy are impacting lower income fishermen more than high income fishermen. This may mean a larger decline in certain types of fishing modes. John cites some other factors that may also be impacting license numbers (lower stock numbers for some species, more access limitations on Outer Banks).

Manatee Videos

Since I am moving in less than a week, here are some You tube videos of manatees less than a mile from my future home.

Living Shorelines

NOAA will be funding shoreline restoration in Alabama's Mobile Bay using Living Shorelines rather than traditional hardened shorelines.

In the past, shorelines were typically stabilized with hardened structures, such as bulkheads and seawalls, to prevent or minimize coastal erosion. However, scientists have found that these structures can actually increase the rate of coastal degradation. Waves reflect off the hardened structures, scouring the area in front of the wall and causing additional shoreline erosion. Bulkheads and seawalls also block tidal water flow to coastal wetlands, as well as hamper natural flood control, water treatment potential, and access for juvenile fish to their nursery habitat.

For those interested, VIMS Center for Coastal Resources Management has a site dedicated to living shorelines. The National Research Council also has an book titled "Mitigating Shore Erosion along Sheltered Coasts". Living shorelines can provide numerous ecosystem services including nursery habitat, nutrient and sediment filtering, and mitigation of erosion.

Coastal shorelines have exhibited chronic degradation, in that land use patterns have slowly changed over time. Because these changes impact the system as a whole, it makes sense to promote shoreline stabilization strategies which will reduce water pollution and promote nursery areas.

Craig Landry and I have a survey paper discussing the use of hedonic property models to measure property owners' willingness-to-pay for risk reduction and amenities in coastal zones. The paper focuses on ways hedonic property models can be applied to living shorelines.

NJ Anglers Support Offshore Wind Energy

From Environmental Capital:

A group of commercial fishermen wants to get in on the rush to build offshore wind farms to generate electricity. It’s an interesting about face for the fishing industry, which has traditionally fought offshore industrialization – other than their own floating seafood factories, that is.

Charter Captains Feeling the Squeeze

Charter Captains are feeling the effects of rising costs and a slowing economy. From the Virginia Pilot

In the first two months of the year, the number of for-hire trips by North Carolina's 700 charter, guide and head boats dropped 30 percent, from 4,300 trips to 3,000, compared with last year, according to the state Division of Marine Fisheries.

The article identifies rising diesel prices as a major contributer to rising costs.

Even though only a portion of the $200 to $400 in additional fuel costs per trip is being passed along to charter boat customers, fewer anglers are signing on, and boat owners are suffering.

Not surprisingly, there seem to be wealth effects associated with the rising costs, as more wealthy anglers continue to fish but less wealthy angler substitute other activities.

"The cost of fuel is an annoyance but not altering our lifestyle significantly," said Carey, a physician. "We're fortunate we can afford it."

Upper-income anglers are able to foot higher bills, but not the blue-collar guy, said Whitaker. "They don't have to go fishing," he said. "They have to eat and get to work, not fish."

Hat Tip Ahab's Journal

USGS WaterWatch

Here is a cool site for those interested in water research. USGS has a site called WaterWatch which gives you access to data from water stations around the US. This site gives information of flood and flow conditions. The National Weather Service also has a River Conditions Map.

Stabilization the Hard Way

In the Charlotte Observer, Rob Young and Andrew Coburn (both from the Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines at Western Carolina) have an op-ed piece criticizing requests for a jetty at Figure Eight Island on the NC coast. There is a new NC Senate bill that, if passed, would allow a pilot project aimed at stabilizing Rich inlet

They state:

Any shore-perpendicular structure interrupts the flow of sand alongshore, causing erosion on the downdrift side. In the case of the proposed structure at Figure 8 Island, it acts like a jetty, blocking the sand moving across Rich Inlet and preventing it from reaching Figure 8 Island. This will predictably increase the rate of erosion further down on the island. The proposed structure may protect a few houses near the inlet, but it will shift the erosion threat to additional homes of neighbors down island.The structure will not reduce the need for beach nourishment, as suggested by some advocates. Our data indicate that projects like those referenced by supporters of the bill have required a total of 150 million cubic yards of sand at a cost of $730 million to stabilize nearby shoreline. Constant, costly nourishment will still be required.

It will be interesting to see if this bill is passed. North Carolina has a long history of rejecting hard stabilization projects. Figure Eight Island represents a very elite group of land owners. Do they have the political capital to get this type of project passed? It would definitely differ from the current management strategy.

Personally, I am skeptical management strategies which utilize hard stabilization structures to protect personal property. These structures alter the coastal sediment transport processes, often damaging shorelines in other locations. Are these types of structures really in the public interest or are they in the best interest of a small group of property owners? Who benefits and who incurs the cost?

Spreading the Risk or Passing the Buck?

Tim Haab at Environmental Economics has a post which refers to efforts in Congress to develop reinsurance which would reduce some of the insurance costs paid by coastal residents. His post brings up a good point: does this effort subsidize coastal residents (he appears to think so) or does it spread risks across a larger pool of people. If the program is similar to the NFIP, it may very well subsidize some of these coastal residents. This would be problematic since it reduces the costs associated with living in high risk areas. If the program is actuarially fair, however, it may spread risks across different regions of the US.

Many would argue, however, that government should not get into the insurance business.

When are you ready to leave?

In today's LA Times, there is an article discussing FEMA's efforts to have people in FEMA trailers who were displaced by Katrina find new residences. That begs the question, how long should these government agencies be responsible for displaced individuals and families. It is generally a sad situation when people cannot move back to their hometown because they lack the resources to find suitable housing, however, the must be some other mechanism that helps people get back on their feet. Should FEMA really have a long term role in housing displaced people? It seems to me that this responsibility should fall on some other government agency.